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Sep 25, 2022; Seattle, Washington, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Marcus Mariota (1) walks to the locker room following a 27-23 victory against the Seattle Seahawks during the fourth quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

FALCONS +1.5

Fade. The. Public. My Sunday morning consisted of texting the best “fades” around the Tri-State area, and asking them for their top NFL picks of the day (with spread.) After conducting this survey I can confidently say EVERYONE is on the Browns.

Those same Browns that lost to the New York Football Jets. Those same Browns that have only beat the Panthers and the Steelers. The bottom line: This Browns team is severely overvalued.

Believe it or not, the Falcons have played well this year. Atlanta’s point differential through three weeks is 0. They come off their first win of the season last week vs. the Seahawks. In both losses they have played their opponent down to the last play of the game. In Week 1, they stormed back against the Saints only lose on a game winning field goal. The very next week they came all the way back vs. the Rams only to throw an interception in the end-zone as time expired. My larger point – the Falcons are better than their record indicates.

The spread opened at Browns -3 and despite the public backing Cleveland, sharp money continues to come in on the Falcons.

Falcons +1.5 to go 4-0. Book. It.

Previous Picks: 3-0

Colts +5.5

Patriots -2

Texans +7

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