Jan 22, 2023; Portland, Oregon, USA; Los Angeles Lakers small forward LeBron James (6) shoots the ball during the first half against the Portland Trail Blazers at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
NBA: Los Angeles Lakers at Portland Trail Blazers
If you thought some of the scores and point totals this NBA season were absurd, you’re not alone. The 2022-2023 campaign has been a historical outlier for offense, and it’s a little hard to believe how high scoring has soared this year.
Beyond the simple fact that the league-wide scoring rate of 114 points per 100 possessions is the highest in history, there are plenty of other noteworthy offensive trends to be observed this year.
December 2022 saw 44 games in which a player scored 40 or more points; ten years ago, the 2012-2013 season saw 36 such games across the 82-game season. A 70+ point game–recorded by the Cavaliers’ scoring 71 on January 3rd–is only the 12th occasion that has ever happened. A whopping 44 players are averaging over 20 points per game this season and five who are averaging 30 or more. Both of those marks would be all-time records. If we rewind the clock a decade again, only 11 players were averaging 20 points per game or better in 2012-2013, and none were averaging 30.
So, why is scoring at a premium in the modern NBA? Beyond more optimal shot selection and the concept of floor spacing, it’s also who is taking these shots. 16 players this season have a usage rate above 30%, which is tied for the highest mark ever. When the best of the best are getting the most touches and converting high-efficiency shots, no wonder we’ve witnessed some incredible performances this year. Kevin Durant is a perfect example: with a 31.6% usage rate, he’s averaging almost 30 a game on nowhere near his career-high volume, and he still takes a ton of mid-range shots. The KD of today is a far more effective player than the KD of even five years ago because he exists in a modern NBA offense predicated on getting their star their preferred looks.
The million-dollar question is if this scoring can be sustained. The truism that defense tightens in the playoffs is understood, but the fact that the game’s best typically increase their production in the postseason may offset that. Try as you might, freaks of nature like Joel Embiid or Giannis Antentoukoumpo will still thrive offensively despite improved defensive schemes. So long as star-powered offense continues within the framework of a spaced floor, expect scoring to remain high.
