Sep 10, 2023; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton (27) is greeted in the dugout after hitting a two run home run to tie the game in the twelfth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
MLB: Milwaukee Brewers at New York Yankees
(New York, NY) – With Opening Day set to take place later this week, it’s a popular time for MLB scribes to pen their annual “prediction” articles.
These typically involve picks for MVP, predictions as to who will win Rookie of the Year, and way-too-early selections as to who will play in the World Series.
As for the Baseball Reference? They’re just fishing for clicks.
The popular website released its playoff projections for the 2024 season, and its model is remarkable.
Baseball-Reference projects the Bombers a 2.7 percent chance to make the postseason and win just 71.6 games – worse than the Pirates, Royals, and Angels.
The bizarre projections fall in comparison to Fangraphs, who project the Yankees to win 88 games, the fourth-most in all of baseball.
Meanwhile, BetRivers Sportsbook projects New York to win 91.5 games (-114) behind only the Dodgers, Braves and Astros.
The Yankees are also +650 to win the most games in baseball, according to BetRivers, the third-best odds.
Despite notable additions like Juan Soto, Marcus Stroman, and Alex Verdugo, the model does not foresee a significant turnaround for the Yankees, even with the potential return of a healthy Aaron Judge.
While the absence of Gerrit Cole due to injury may have influenced the team’s projected performance, it’s hard to believe that it would have such a drastic impact.
